Black Gold, Blue Flame: Gulf NOCs Bet Big on Gas

Middle East producers committed $100B+ to upstream gas in 2025, reshaping global unconventional investment flows

30 Mar 2026

Middle Eastern national oil companies deployed more than $100bn in upstream gas spending during 2025, capturing nearly a quarter of global gas investment, according to new analysis from Rystad Energy. The figures mark the third consecutive year of record project sanctioning across the Gulf.

The scale of commitment stands in contrast to trends elsewhere. European and North American producers trimmed upstream budgets or redirected capital toward lower-carbon assets. Gulf NOCs moved the other way, approving roughly $50bn in long-cycle conventional projects while also driving unconventional gas activity to levels not previously seen in the region. Aramco's Jafurah programme, the largest shale gas development outside the United States, anchored much of that effort.

Financing the expansion required structural innovation. More than $22bn in lease-and-leaseback arrangements were completed across the Gulf in 2025, allowing operators to convert midstream infrastructure into immediate liquidity while retaining operational control. The most prominent transaction was Aramco's $11bn deal with a BlackRock Global Infrastructure Partners-led consortium, covering Jafurah processing and pipeline assets.

Cost pressures complicate the picture. Supply chain inflation is running at around 4% annually across the Middle East energy sector, while operating costs have risen 6 to 7% per year as producers manage both expanding output and ageing infrastructure. In unconventional programmes, where well intensity is inherently higher, controlling drilling and completion costs is a material challenge.

Technology is being deployed as the primary response. AI-driven reservoir modelling, digital twin platforms, and real-time monitoring tools are moving beyond pilot stages toward commercial-scale integration across Gulf shale operations. Operators are expected to deepen that commitment through 2026, treating data capability as a core input to programme economics rather than an operational add-on.

Whether digital investment can keep pace with rising field complexity, and whether sustained well performance will match the scale of capital already committed, remains to be seen.