The Licensing Wave Reshaping MENA's Energy Future

Five MENA nations are overhauling upstream licensing simultaneously, targeting 20 billion boe of new acreage through the 2030s

21 May 2026

Regulatory reform is moving fast across five Middle Eastern and North African states. Libya, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Syria are each overhauling upstream licensing frameworks, courting Western majors at a moment when global capital is pulling back. Wood Mackenzie projects the region will add at least 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent through new rounds and contract awards extending into the 2030s.

Global upstream capital expenditure is forecast to fall by 2 to 3 percent in 2026. That contraction makes the timing of these reforms strategically pointed.

Libya's move draws the most attention. Its National Oil Corporation launched the country's first exploration bid round in 17 years, covering 22 onshore and offshore blocks, with submissions received in early 2026. The target is 2 million barrels per day, close to pre-2011 levels before years of conflict eroded output.

Elsewhere, progress is tangible. Iraq and Oman have agreed on a Basra-to-Duqm pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz chokepoints, opening a new export corridor for unconventional-rich provinces. Kuwait's offshore push has accelerated following major discoveries, with the Nokhetha field alone estimated at 2.1 billion barrels of oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. Syria, after regime change and Western sanctions relief, has created a unified energy ministry and attracted multi-billion-dollar foreign investment commitments.

Underpinning these reforms is a deliberate turn away from Chinese partnerships. Governments across the region are targeting Western operators because hydraulic fracturing and advanced completions expertise cannot be improvised. That technology enters through licensing frameworks being constructed now.

Obstacles are not trivial. Libya's governance remains fragile, and contract enforceability concerns persist. Syria carries residual political risk. Iraq's cost-recovery disputes have frustrated international partners before. Analysts caution that regulatory activity does not automatically produce production timelines.

Foundation work is a prerequisite for unconventional development. Across MENA, that foundation is being actively constructed, and the window for early-mover positioning is narrowing.